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03 / Deep-dive

From a bill to your kitchen

Every tracked bill walks the same path — Parliament, regulators, industry, your home. Pick a bill to see the full chain: who does what, when it lands, and what it costs you.

16 tracked
Current legislation

Finance Bill, 2026

A new tax on M-Pesa and bread

Bottom-line cost
About +KES 1,200 per person, every month
Sponsor
Hon. John Mbadi, Cabinet Secretary for the National Treasury
Stage
Public Hearings
Affects
Anyone who sends money on M-Pesa, online sellers, social media creators, and households buying bread and gas.

Step 01

Parliament
Day 0 — Law signed

Excise duty on M-Pesa transfers rises from 15% to 20%, and 16% VAT is added on bread inputs. KRA is also granted direct access to mobile money records.

Clause 12 amends the Excise Duty Act to lift the levy on mobile-money fees from 15% to 20%. Clause 27 removes bread from the zero-rated VAT schedule, exposing flour, yeast and packaging to the standard 16% VAT. Clause 76 inserts a new section into the Tax Procedures Act allowing KRA to request transaction data from any payment service provider without a prior court order.

Day 0 → Day 7·~1 week
Impact metrics
Excise duty on M-Pesa
15% → 20%
VAT added on bread inputs
+16%
Court order needed for KRA access
No
Key dates
President assents to the Bill
Day 0
Gazette notice triggers the new excise rate
Day 1
KRA opens data-request API to telcos & banks
Day 7

Step 02

Safaricom & Banks
Week 1

Mobile money fees and bank transfers go up. Your transaction history is no longer private — KRA can pull it without a court order.

Payment providers must update fee tables within 7 days of assent. Internal compliance teams build an API endpoint for KRA queries. Banks add a new line item on statements showing the increased excise component, while M-Pesa tariffs auto-adjust at midnight.

Day 7 → Day 14·~1 week
Impact metrics
Send KES 1,000 — old fee
KES 23
Send KES 1,000 — new fee
KES 28
KRA API turnaround
< 24 hrs
Key dates
New M-Pesa & bank fee schedules go live at midnight
Day 7
First KRA data pulls hit telco APIs
Day 10
Statements show new excise line item
Day 14

Step 03

Bakeries & Shops
Week 2–3

Flour and packaging cost more. A loaf of bread goes up KES 5–10. Sending KES 1,000 now costs KES 28 instead of KES 23.

Millers pass the 16% VAT down the chain. A 400g loaf that retailed at KES 65 settles around KES 72–75. Small kiosks that survive on M-Pesa float report a 3–4% margin squeeze and quietly raise prices on sugar, cooking oil and airtime.

Day 14 → Day 21·~2 weeks
Impact metrics
Loaf of bread (400g)
KES 65 → 72–75
Kiosk margin squeeze
~3–4%
Affected outlets nationwide
~280,000
Key dates
Millers raise wholesale flour prices
Day 14
Bakery shelf prices adjust nationwide
Day 18
Kiosks reset M-Pesa float pricing
Day 21

Step 04

Your Home
Month 1+

Higher airtime, costlier bread, more taken from every send-money. Roughly KES 1,200 extra per person each month — and a record of every transaction sits with the taxman.

For a household of four on a median income, the combined effect of higher M-Pesa fees, costlier bread and pass-through inflation works out to roughly KES 4,800 per month. Beyond cost, every till payment, school-fee transfer and chama contribution now sits on a queryable government register.

Month 1 → Ongoing·Permanent
Impact metrics
Extra cost per person / month
+KES 1,200
Extra cost — family of 4
+KES 4,800
Transactions now visible to KRA
All M-Pesa & bank
Key dates
First full payslip & receipts reflect new taxes
Month 1
KRA cross-checks M-Pesa data against returns
Month 3
Annual review window in Parliament
Month 12

All tracked bills

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